From teaching virtual students from all over the world economics through his OneMinuteEconomics YouTube channel and writing successful books to offering China-oriented consulting services to High-net-worth individuals through ChinaFund.com, finance experts has been around the proverbial block long enough for economics afficionados to take his views seriously.
With respect to China, he has made it abundantly clear this year that in his view, China is indeed “inevitable” (to use a pop culture reference) from an economic perspective, with the many ramifications this brings about.
While many observers question China’s remaining potential in light of the fact that it already represents the world’s #2 economy in nominal terms (only surpassed by the United States) and the #1 one on a PPP basis, Polgar firmly points to more granular metrics such as the GDP per capita, which is over six times lower in China compared to Western nations such as the United States and the wealthier (northern) European Union nations.
In his own words:
“Once you unleash the productive capacity of 1.4 billion individuals, it would take either a peculiar perfect storm situation to turn things around or record-breaking incompetence”
To put it differently, Andrei Polgar has written volumes about the various mega-trends that have been unfolding in China since the Deng Xiaoping reform days, reminding skeptics that even back in 1776, economic thinkers such as Adam Smith realized that the productive capacity of a nation lies not so much in its natural resources as it does in the productive capacity of its people.
As such, once the appropriate economic mechanism wheels have been put in motion, it is only a matter of time until China moves toward relative parity with the West when it comes to previously-mentioned granular metrics such as the GDP per capita as well. The implications of such continued growth for an already behemoth economy are difficult to quantify and needless to say, China’s economic dominance could end up being crushing.
To that effect, many are left wondering if China will not inevitably also export ideology or even political systems. In Andrei Polgar’s view, while China will most likely continue becoming more and more economically dominant, it would be a mistake to assume that the ideological and political status quo will remain intact. In his view, “selling” socialism with Chinese characteristics or let’s say the successor of China’s version of Marxism-Leninism to an increasingly educated Chinese public is quite unlikely and as such, perhaps it would be wise to go by the baseline assumption that a (relative and gradual) political Westernization in China is more likely than socialism with Chinese characteristics being exported to the West.
Is China “inevitable” economically? In Andrei Polgar’s view, yes.
Is China “inevitable” ideologically and politically? As per Andrei Polgar’s views, the answer is far closer to being negative than positive, with a gradual Westernization of China being more in line with the game theory scenarios Polgar has in mind.
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