Homebuyers expect the next recession to hit by 2022, according to a new survey.
About 75% of active homebuyers surveyed by Toluna Research on behalf of Realtor.com said they expect the recession to begin by 2022 — 36% think it will begin next year.
“During the first half of the year the U.S. economy has done well, employment and wages are positive for buyers, but all the news about the trade war, Brexit and concerns over the European recession are beginning to hit home,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
If and when a recession does hit, a majority, 56%, of homebuyers said they plan to put their buying plans on hold, according to the survey. The good news is most agree that such a recession will be nothing like the one the U.S. experienced more than a decade ago. Forty-four percent of buyers feel that the recession will be less severe than the one in 2008. And economists seem to agree.
“This recession will look very different from the last one if when it comes,” said Igor Popov, chief economist at Apartment List, a real estate site focused on rentals. “Factors [such as the lack of inventory] will keep home prices from falling too far.”
In general, buyers are more optimistic about homeownership. Nearly 50% of home shoppers revealed they think more favorably about homeownership after the 2008 recession. This is up from nearly 45% earlier this spring when they were asked the same question by Realtor.com.
“It’s clearly a situation where consumers are trying to read tea leaves but mood has darkened,” said Ratiu.
Amanda Fung is an editor at Yahoo Finance.