Washington's 'political war' over Trump could block new legislation: analyst

Katie Krzaczek
Associate Editor

As the House of Representatives takes action toward impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump, one Washington analyst says the Capital should prepare for a “political war.”

In a new note, Raymond James said “legislating is dead” now that Democrats are pushing for impeachment.

“If we are in the middle of an impeachment proceeding between the House of Representatives and this White House, that’s...political war,” Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, told Yahoo Finance’s YFi AM on Wednesday.

Mills said the inquiry will likely bring a lot of policy negotiations to a halt, including “health care, prescription drug prices, [and] what can be done even on the budget deal.”

“You usually don’t cut a lot of deals, legislatively, when you’re at war,” he said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) arrives prior to announcing the House of Representatives will launch a formal inquiry to investigate whether to impeach U.S. President Donald Trump following a closed House Democratic caucus meeting at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., September 24, 2019. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

While most processes may be stalled during any potential impeachment proceedings, Mills said the USMCA (the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) is one piece of legislation that could eke through.

“It’s arguably a must-pass at this point,” he said. “But that is more in doubt today that it was a week ago.”

The good news is that any investigation will not be a lengthy repeat of the Mueller probe. If the White House continues to stonewall any requests for documents or information, that, Miller said, easily provides articles of impeachment for obstruction of justice.

“Democrats would like to wrap this up sooner rather than later,” he said. “One of the key questions is going to be, ‘how much does the White House provide new information? The calculus from the Congressional Democrats is that the White House will continue to stonewall.’”

Miller predicts that Democrats will aim to close an impeachment inquiry by the end of the year. “That’s the base-case here,” he said.

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