Donald Trump has been given a 2-in-3 chance (68%) of winning re-election in the US, a complete flip in the odds having started the night with half the chance of opponent Joe Biden, betting company Smarkets said.
Trump traded as high as 80% a few hours earlier, but the gap between the two has narrowed slightly since then.
Patrick Flynn, a political analyst at Smarkets, said: “With early and on-the-day votes highly split by partisanship, the outcome of this election is going to come down to the types of votes that remain to be counted in some of the key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona.
“As of writing, a disproportionate number of on-the-day votes have been reported in the former two states, so reports of Biden’s early demise may have been greatly exaggerated. However the next few hours (or days!) go, this race isn't over yet.”
On Tuesday, it was reported there was a 45% chance incumbent Trump will not concede if he loses the US election race, according to Smarkets.
Nearly 100 million Americans are believed to have voted early in the presidential election, on course to be the highest turnout in a century. They are voting in one of the country’s most divisive presidential elections in decades between incumbent Trump and his Democrat challenger Biden.
Markets could be in for a bumpy ride with the many possible outcomes in the election, including scenarios where the outcome isn’t known for days.
Markets may have already priced in the assumption of a contested election, with JPMorgan strategist John Normand writing in late September that a battle over the election results is their “baseline” expectation.
The most recent example of a contested election was the 2000 race between Al Gore and George W Bush.
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